I have been reading about a few developments that may affect Indian IT. They are not the complete picture, but they are useful inputs into a small scenario-mapping experiment I am building.
1. H-1B costs, dependents and delivery choices
The US has proposed a substantial additional fee for cap-subject H-1B petitions.1 This could make onsite deployment more expensive. There is also a family aspect. If dependent spouses cannot work under any future policy change, an onsite role may become less attractive for married people and existing expat families. That can create disruption even before a company changes its delivery model.
The outcome for Indian IT is not automatically positive or negative. More work may be delivered from India, but US local hiring may rise too. Clients are already building GCC capability in India, and some may bring more work into those centres rather than use the traditional services model.
2. AI and employment uncertainty
NDTV reported a Great Place To Work India survey in which nearly one in four CHROs expected AI-related workforce reductions of between 1% and 20% over two years.2 That is a survey result, not my forecast for Indian IT.
There is likely to be short-term uncertainty and some hiring reduction while companies allocate budgets to AI experimentation and automate parts of routine work. Over time, other roles should emerge. Areas such as mechanical engineering, robotics, drones, embedded systems and industrial AI may create different kinds of demand. The important question is whether Indian companies and professionals capture that work.
3. Japanese GCCs in India
Japanese GCC activity in India is a positive input. Deloitte says more than 100 Japanese firms operate GCCs here, with work in product R&D, AI, engineering and digital manufacturing.3 If this starts to scale further, it should be net positive for India, particularly for engineering-led work rather than only traditional outsourcing.
I am doing a short experiment by building an Indian IT Scenario Simulator. As new evidence appears, I will update the model and keep its changelog visible.
For this update, H-1B is mixed / uncertain; AI is mixed, with short-term pressure and longer-term opportunity; and Japanese GCCs are positive, but confidence-weighted because the direction is constructive while the eventual scale is not yet known.